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Although Republicans appear to have more agreement on the specifics of tax reform than health care reform, experts predict we’ll be hearing more debate in committees and in the media before an actual tax reform bill makes it to the House or Senate floor. Now many experts predict a tax reform or reduction bill will pass, but it may not happen in 2017.
The White House and Republican lawmakers know they need a more unified front to sustain a push for major tax reform, especially in the wake of continued angst and division over health care reform. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is a key player in drafting and negotiating a tax reform proposal. He says he is optimistic that a comprehensive plan should win approval by the Congressional recess this August. But President Donald Trump has been less specific. When asked recently whether he could “cut a deal on tax reform this year” by a Financial Times editor, Trump responded he did not want to talk about timing saying, “We will have a massive and very strong tax reform. But I am not going to talk about when.”
Leading House Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, have proposed tax code changes that include a much-debated border adjustment tax. CEOs of 16 U.S. companies including General Electric and Boeing support the proposal that would reduce corporate income tax from 35% to 20%. It would also impose a 20% tax on imported goods while removing taxes on exported goods. Critics claim such a tax structure would cause consumer prices to rise and unfairly burden retail and automotive manufacturing industries that purchase low-cost parts and supplies from overseas.
Trump has also expressed an interest in pushing simplified personal income and corporate tax reform through at the same time and may also include an infrastructure investment package in a comprehensive tax plan. Tackling big issues with a massive all-encompassing bill may provide opportunities to please all parties, but may also result in the same kind of partisan and intraparty fractures suffered by health care reform efforts.
Democrats are also unlikely to support major income tax cuts at either the corporate or personal level.
Based on their recent disappointment over a failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Republicans know they need to build and confirm support for significant tax reform. Many financial experts say that means an agreement may not be reached until late 2017 or early 2018.
